fish wrote:My gut feeling is that somewhere, the democratic party bosses are laughing:
"this election is going to be merely a procedural formality"
That maybe true.
If Newt wins Florida, and Romney doesn't drop out(I see him staying in for the long haul) and Paul stays in and goes to the end(which I expect to see) and no matter what Santorum does...then this could get very ugly. And could very easily go all the way to the convention with no one having a majority of delegates. Anything then is a possibility coming out of Tampa. ANYTHING. Even a brand new person picked at the convention.
And the party rules this year, actually allows for this to
easily go into May at the earliest if this stays a 3 or 4 person race. Florida and Arizona are the only full winner take all Primaries
until March(both at a 50% delegate penalty). And I think all of the Primaries in March that
could be winner take all, only allow for a winner take all if 1 person gets over 50% of the vote otherwise they are straight proportional. And you still have a lot of caucus and district proportionally allotted delegates
all the way to the end. Even if someone really started to go on a roll, and this went just 2 way....it would still be into April before someone could feasibly get 50% of the delegates. After April 4th, only about 63% of delegates have been selected. Texas is straight proportional BTW currently scheduled on the 4th of April...and they do not even know what districts they will be voting in yet, due to the court cases waging over re-districting.
Bottom line. Hold on for the ride, because this most likely is going to go for the long haul. And heck, this is what the party wanted. They switched to this to try to mimic the 08 democratic battle between Obama and Hillary. So if they get a mess, it is a mess of their own creation.
Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
-Benjamin Franklin, Historical Review of Pennsylvania, 1759